long term investing

Key Questions for the Long-Term Investor

Focusing on what you can control can lead to a better investment experience.

At some point, most investors ask themselves questions like: “Do I have to outsmart the market to be successful?” or “Will a fund with strong past performance do well in the future?” A few key principles can help provide answers and improve the odds of investment success in the long run.

Whether you’ve been investing for decades or are just getting started, at some point on your investment journey you’ll likely ask yourself some of the questions below. Trying to answer these questions may be intimidating, but know that you’re not alone. Your financial advisor is here to help. While this is not intended to be an exhaustive list it will hopefully shed light on a few key principles, using data and reasoning, that may help improve investors’ odds of investment success in the long run.

Click here to read more:

Key Questions for the Long-Term Investor

Robert J. Pyle, CFP®, CFA is president of Diversified Asset Management, Inc. (DAMI). DAMI is licensed as an investment adviser with the State of Colorado Division of Securities, and its investment advisory representatives are licensed by the State of Colorado. DAMI will only transact business in other states to the extent DAMI has made the requisite notice filings or obtained the necessary licensing in such state. No follow up or individualized responses to persons in other jurisdictions that involve either rendering or attempting to render personalized investment advice for compensation will be made absent compliance with applicable legal requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. It does not constitute investment or tax advice. To contact Robert, call 303-440-2906 or e-mail info@diversifiedassetmanagement.com.

 

The views, opinion, information and content provided here are solely those of the respective authors, and may not represent the views or opinions of Diversified Asset Management, Inc.  The selection of any posts or articles should not be regarded as an explicit or implicit endorsement or recommendation of any such posts or articles, or services provided or referenced and statements made by the authors of such posts or articles.  Diversified Asset Management, Inc. cannot guarantee the accuracy or currency of any such third party information or content, and does not undertake to verify or update such information or content. Any such information or other content should not be construed as investment, legal, accounting or tax advice.

Timing Isn't Everything

Over the course of a summer, it’s not unusual for the stock market to be a topic of conversation at barbeques or other social gatherings.

A neighbor or relative might ask about which investments are good at the moment. The lure of getting in at the right time or avoiding the next downturn may tempt even disciplined, long-term investors. The reality of successfully timing markets, however, isn’t as straightforward as it sounds.

OUTGUESSING THE MARKET IS DIFFICULT

Attempting to buy individual stocks or make tactical asset allocation changes at exactly the “right” time presents investors with substantial challenges. First and foremost, markets are fiercely competitive and adept at processing information. During 2018, a daily average of $462.8 billion in equity trading took place around the world.[1] The combined effect of all this buying and selling is that available information, from economic data to investor preferences and so on, is quickly incorporated into market prices. Trying to time the market based on an article from this morning’s newspaper or a segment from financial television? It’s likely that information is already reflected in prices by the time an investor can react to it.

Dimensional recently studied the performance of actively managed mutual funds and found that even professional investors have difficulty beating the market: over the last 20 years, 77% of equity funds and 92% of fixed income funds failed to survive and outperform their benchmarks after costs.[2]

[1]. In US dollars. Source: Dimensional, using data from Bloomberg LP. Includes primary and secondary exchange trading volume globally for equities. ETFs and funds are excluded. Daily averages were computed by calculating the trading volume of each stock daily as the closing price multiplied by shares traded that day. All such trading volume is summed up and divided by 252 as an approximate number of annual trading days.

[2]. Mutual Fund Landscape 2019.

Further complicating matters, for investors to have a shot at successfully timing the market, they must make the call to buy or sell stocks correctly not just once, but twice. Professor Robert Merton, a Nobel laureate, said it well in a recent interview with Dimensional:

“Timing markets is the dream of everybody. Suppose I could verify that I’m a .700 hitter in calling market turns. That’s pretty good; you’d hire me right away. But to be a good market timer, you’ve got to do it twice. What if the chances of me getting it right were independent each time? They’re not. But if they were, that’s 0.7 times 0.7. That’s less than 50-50. So, market timing is horribly difficult to do.”

TIME AND THE MARKET

The S&P 500 Index has logged an incredible decade. Should this result impact investors’ allocations to equities? Exhibit 1 suggests that new market highs have not been a harbinger of negative returns to come. The S&P 500 went on to provide positive average annualized returns over one, three, and five years following new market highs.

In US dollars. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. New market highs are defined as months ending with the market above all previous levels for the sample period. Annualized compound returns are computed for the relevant time periods subsequent to new market highs and averaged across all new market high observations. There were 1,115 observation months in the sample. January 1990–present: S&P 500 Total Returns Index. S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. January 1926–December 1989; S&P 500 Total Return Index,  Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation Yearbook ™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago. For illustrative purposes only. Index is not available for direct investment; therefore, its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. There is always a risk that an investor may lose money.

In US dollars. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. New market highs are defined as months ending with the market above all previous levels for the sample period. Annualized compound returns are computed for the relevant time periods subsequent to new market highs and averaged across all new market high observations. There were 1,115 observation months in the sample. January 1990–present: S&P 500 Total Returns Index. S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. January 1926–December 1989; S&P 500 Total Return Index, Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago. For illustrative purposes only. Index is not available for direct investment; therefore, its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. There is always a risk that an investor may lose money.

CONCLUSION

Outguessing markets is more difficult than many investors might think. While favorable timing is theoretically possible, there isn’t much evidence that it can be done reliably, even by professional investors. The positive news is that investors don’t need to be able to time markets to have a good investment experience. Over time, capital markets have rewarded investors who have taken a long-term perspective and remained disciplined in the face of short-term noise. By focusing on the things they can control (like having an appropriate asset allocation, diversification, and managing expenses, turnover, and taxes) investors can better position themselves to make the most of what capital markets have to offer.

Robert J. Pyle, CFP®, CFA is president of Diversified Asset Management, Inc. (DAMI). DAMI is licensed as an investment adviser with the State of Colorado Division of Securities, and its investment advisory representatives are licensed by the State of Colorado. DAMI will only transact business in other states to the extent DAMI has made the requisite notice filings or obtained the necessary licensing in such state. No follow up or individualized responses to persons in other jurisdictions that involve either rendering or attempting to render personalized investment advice for compensation will be made absent compliance with applicable legal requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. It does not constitute investment or tax advice. To contact Robert, call 303-440-2906 or e-mail info@diversifiedassetmanagement.com.

 

The views, opinion, information and content provided here are solely those of the respective authors, and may not represent the views or opinions of Diversified Asset Management, Inc.  The selection of any posts or articles should not be regarded as an explicit or implicit endorsement or recommendation of any such posts or articles, or services provided or referenced and statements made by the authors of such posts or articles.  Diversified Asset Management, Inc. cannot guarantee the accuracy or currency of any such third party information or content, and does not undertake to verify or update such information or content. Any such information or other content should not be construed as investment, legal, accounting or tax advice.

The Uncommon Average

May 2019

“I have found that the importance of having an investment philosophy—one that is robust and that you can stick with— cannot be overstated.”

—David Booth

The US stock market has delivered an average annual return of around 10% since 1926.[1] But short-term results may vary, and in any given period stock returns can be positive, negative, or flat. When setting expectations, it’s helpful to see the range of outcomes experienced by investors historically. For example, how often have the stock market’s annual returns actually aligned with its long-term average?

Exhibit 1 shows calendar year returns for the S&P 500 Index since 1926. The shaded band marks the historical average of 10%, plus or minus 2 percentage points. The S&P 500 Index had a return within this range in only six of the past 93 calendar years. In most years, the index’s return was outside of the range—often above or below by a wide margin—with no obvious pattern. For investors, the data highlight the importance of looking beyond average returns and being aware of the range of potential outcomes.


[1]. As measured by the S&P 500 Index from 1926–2018.

Capture-5-8-19.JPG

TUNING IN TO DIFFERENT FREQUENCIES

Despite the year-to-year volatility, investors can potentially increase their chances of having a positive outcome by maintaining a long-term focus. Exhibit 2 documents the historical frequency of positive returns over rolling periods of one, five, and 10 years in the US market. The data show that, while positive performance is never assured, investors’ odds improve over longer time horizons.

Capture2-5-8-19.JPG

Conclusion

While some investors might find it easy to stay the course in years with above average returns, periods of disappointing results may test an investor’s faith in equity markets. Being aware of the range of potential outcomes can help investors remain disciplined, which in the long term can increase the odds of a successful investment experience. What can help investors endure the ups and downs? While there is no silver bullet, understanding how markets work and trusting market prices are good starting points. An asset allocation that aligns with personal risk tolerances and investment goals is also valuable. By thoughtfully considering these and other issues, investors may be better prepared to stay focused on their long-term goals during different market environments. 

Robert J. Pyle, CFP®, CFA is president of Diversified Asset Management, Inc. (DAMI). DAMI is licensed as an investment adviser with the State of Colorado Division of Securities, and its investment advisory representatives are licensed by the State of Colorado. DAMI will only transact business in other states to the extent DAMI has made the requisite notice filings or obtained the necessary licensing in such state. No follow up or individualized responses to persons in other jurisdictions that involve either rendering or attempting to render personalized investment advice for compensation will be made absent compliance with applicable legal requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. It does not constitute investment or tax advice. To contact Robert, call 303-440-2906 or e-mail info@diversifiedassetmanagement.com.

 

The views, opinion, information and content provided here are solely those of the respective authors, and may not represent the views or opinions of Diversified Asset Management, Inc.  The selection of any posts or articles should not be regarded as an explicit or implicit endorsement or recommendation of any such posts or articles, or services provided or referenced and statements made by the authors of such posts or articles.  Diversified Asset Management, Inc. cannot guarantee the accuracy or currency of any such third party information or content, and does not undertake to verify or update such information or content. Any such information or other content should not be construed as investment, legal, accounting or tax advice.

6 Keys to Comprehensive Personal Wealth Planning, Part 1

Key Takeaways:

  1. Accumulating wealth for retirement needs.

  2. Doing appropriate income tax planning.

  3. Planning for the distribution of the estate.

  4. Avoiding guardianships.

  5. Preparing for long-term health care costs.

  6. Protecting assets.

 

This article is the first in a series designed to help you and your advisor implement appropriate financial, estate and asset protection planning, regardless of your age, assets or income.

Personal and Wealth Planning Needs: 6 Keys

Everyone, regardless of their age, health, marital status, assets and income, should understand the six key planning needs for protecting themselves against personal, legal, tax and financial issues.

1. Accumulating Wealth for Retirement Needs

We all retire at some point in time. Retirement is when wealth accumulation normally tapers off and we begin to consume our accumulated assets in order to fund our retirement needs. Never overlook the importance of retirement income planning because, if ignored, retirement, aging and income cash-flow needs can significantly erode your wealth. Life insurance statistics show that a 50-year-old now has at least an even chance of living to 110!

Assuming an average retirement age between age 60 and 65, many of you realistically face the prospect of living 30 to 40 years AFTER your working life (i.e. wealth accumulation phase) has ended. In estate planning, we often talk about preserving wealth and passing it on to the next generation. But given the demographics of aging, inflation, health care needs, etc., it is easy to have your wealth run out before you do.

2. Appropriate Tax Planning Should Always Be Considered

You face a multitude of state and federal taxes (along with income tax issues and wealth transfer tax issues), which must be addressed at each stage of life as well as at each stage of the planning process.

3. At Some Point We All Die

It is critical that you have appropriate estate planning documents in place, including wills, trusts, appropriate beneficiary designations, guardian designations and more.

4. Avoiding Guardianships

Unfortunately, because of age, accident or illness, we all face the prospect of being unable to take care of our own finances or to make our own health care decisions. Therefore, proper documents need to be put in place NOW to allow someone else to make appropriate decisions on our behalf.

5. Long-Term Health Care Costs

Because of health and aging, everyone faces the prospect of financing long-term health care needs, including the possibility of assisted living and full skilled-care living. These costs can be financially devastating if they are not planned for.

6. Asset Protection Planning

Everyone should be concerned about protecting their wealth from divorcing spouses, lawsuits, family problems, business problems, taxes, creditors and predators that can ruin your long-term financial health. Failure to address any of these needs can result in significant financial loss and the accompanying emotional, psychological and family issues that all too often accompany the onslaught of life’s problems.

We can’t fight the aging process. We can’t prevent the unexpected events that impact our quality of life. However, proper planning and documentation can go a long way toward creating peace of mind when we have put in place the appropriate planning for financial, legal, tax and healthcare issues that are bound to occur during your lifetime.

Getting started

Regardless of your age, health, assets and income, everyone needs a well-drafted “financial durable power of attorney” and an appropriate advanced medical directive. Advanced medical directives normally include healthcare powers of attorney, living wills and more. If you are unable to attend to your financial, personal care or health care matters because of age, accident or illness, no one can make these decisions for you unless the decision making has been specifically designated in writing. 

Financial durable powers of attorney cover assets, income and dealings with other financial matters and government agencies. Advanced medical directives deal with personal care and medical issues, including surgery, placement, medication, assisted living, full skilled-care decisions and end-of-life decisions.

If you do not have these documents in place, unfortunately these decisions will have to be made under a court-supervised process known as a “guardian of the person” (for personal care and medical issue decisions) or a “guardian of the estate” (for financial matters). Guardianships are expensive, personally intrusive and perhaps the worst way to manage any of the decision-making processes.

The proceedings can be very traumatic and expensive. Guardianships of an estate or the person are easy to avoid if the appropriate documents are put in place.

Conclusion

A final word of caution: Be careful about using simple, generic estate planning forms. Simple forms often ignore many of the issues that will have to be made throughout the course of your lifetime. Many of the decisions that may be critically important to your family need to be specifically designated in the documents. Take the time to get your affairs in order while you are still in your prime health and income producing years. You’ll be glad you did.

Robert J. Pyle, CFP®, CFA is president of Diversified Asset Management, Inc. (DAMI). DAMI is licensed as an investment adviser with the State of Colorado Division of Securities, and its investment advisory representatives are licensed by the State of Colorado. DAMI will only transact business in other states to the extent DAMI has made the requisite notice filings or obtained the necessary licensing in such state. No follow up or individualized responses to persons in other jurisdictions that involve either rendering or attempting to render personalized investment advice for compensation will be made absent compliance with applicable legal requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. It does not constitute investment or tax advice. To contact Robert, call 303-440-2906 or e-mail info@diversifiedassetmanagement.com.

 

The views, opinion, information and content provided here are solely those of the respective authors, and may not represent the views or opinions of Diversified Asset Management, Inc.  The selection of any posts or articles should not be regarded as an explicit or implicit endorsement or recommendation of any such posts or articles, or services provided or referenced and statements made by the authors of such posts or articles.  Diversified Asset Management, Inc. cannot guarantee the accuracy or currency of any such third party information or content, and does not undertake to verify or update such information or content. Any such information or other content should not be construed as investment, legal, accounting or tax advice.

Dimensional Stories: Global Diversification

Here is a great video from on why you should diversify.

David Booth speaks on global diversification, highlighting its role in avoiding extreme investment outcomes and emphasizing the importance of staying the course over the long term.

Dimensional Stories: Global Diversification:

Robert J. Pyle, CFP®, CFA is president of Diversified Asset Management, Inc. (DAMI). DAMI is licensed as an investment adviser with the State of Colorado Division of Securities, and its investment advisory representatives are licensed by the State of Colorado. DAMI will only transact business in other states to the extent DAMI has made the requisite notice filings or obtained the necessary licensing in such state. No follow up or individualized responses to persons in other jurisdictions that involve either rendering or attempting to render personalized investment advice for compensation will be made absent compliance with applicable legal requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. It does not constitute investment or tax advice. To contact Robert, call 303-440-2906 or e-mail info@diversifiedassetmanagement.com.

The views, opinion, information and content provided here are solely those of the respective authors, and may not represent the views or opinions of Diversified Asset Management, Inc.  The selection of any posts or articles should not be regarded as an explicit or implicit endorsement or recommendation of any such posts or articles, or services provided or referenced and statements made by the authors of such posts or articles.  Diversified Asset Management, Inc. cannot guarantee the accuracy or currency of any such third party information or content, and does not undertake to verify or update such information or content. Any such information or other content should not be construed as investment, legal, accounting or tax advice.

New Market Highs and Positive Expected Returns

Here is a nice article provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors:

There has been much discussion in the news recently about new nominal highs in stock indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. When markets hit new highs, is that an indication that it’s time for investors to cash out?
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE:

New Market Highs and Positive Expected Returns.pdf

 

Robert J. Pyle, CFP®, CFA is president of Diversified Asset Management, Inc. (DAMI). DAMI is licensed as an investment adviser with the State of Colorado Division of Securities, and its investment advisory representatives are licensed by the State of Colorado. DAMI will only transact business in other states to the extent DAMI has made the requisite notice filings or obtained the necessary licensing in such state. No follow up or individua lized responses to persons in other jurisdictions that involve either rendering or attempting to render personalized investment advice for compensation will be made absent compliance with applicable legal requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. It does not constitute investment or tax advice. To contact Robert, call 303-440-2906 or e-mail info@diversifiedassetmanagement.com.

 

The views, opinion, information and content provided here are solely those of the respective authors, and may not represent the views or opinions of Diversified Asset Management, Inc.  The selection of any posts or articles should not be regarded as an explicit or implicit endorsement or recommendation of any such posts or articles, or services provided or referenced and statements made by the authors of such posts or articles.  Diversified Asset Management, Inc. cannot guarantee the accuracy or currency of any such third party information or content, and does not undertake to verify or update such information or content. Any such information or other content should not be construed as investment, legal, accounting or tax advice.

Prediction Season

Here is a nice article provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors: 


Predictions about future price movements come in all shapes and sizes, but most of them tempt the investor into playing a game of outguessing the market.  READ MORE HERE:

Prediction Season.pdf


Robert J. Pyle, CFP®, CFA is president of Diversified Asset Management, Inc. (DAMI). DAMI is licensed as an investment adviser with the State of Colorado Division of Securities, and its investment advisory representatives are licensed by the State of Colorado. DAMI will only transact business in other states to the extent DAMI has made the requisite notice filings or obtained the necessary licensing in such state. No follow up or individualized responses to persons in other jurisdictions that involve either rendering or attempting to render personalized investment advice for compensation will be made absent compliance with applicable legal requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. It does not constitute investment or tax advice. To contact Robert, call 303-440-2906 or e-mail info@diversifiedassetmanagement.com.



The views, opinion, information and content provided here are solely those of the respective authors, and may not represent the views or opinions of Diversified Asset Management, Inc.  The selection of any posts or articles should not be regarded as an explicit or implicit endorsement or recommendation of any such posts or articles, or services provided or referenced and statements made by the authors of such posts or articles.  Diversified Asset Management, Inc. cannot guarantee the accuracy or currency of any such third party information or content, and does not undertake to verify or update such information or content. Any such information or other content should not be construed as investment, legal, accounting or tax advice.

What Motivates Your Investment Moves?

When the stock market falls sharply as it did following the recent Brexit Referendum in the United Kingdom, it is not unusual for investors to react emotionally -- to act on impulse before thinking through the potential long-term consequences. Why does emotion sometimes cloud your judgment when it comes to making investment decisions? The answer may be found in the study of "behavioral finance."

Scholars of behavioral finance believe that investors are too often influenced by psychological or emotional impulses that run contrary to the fundamental principles of long-term planning. But the study of behavioral finance involves more than pointing fingers at past mistakes. Its proponents encourage investors to develop skill in recognizing situations that may lead them to make emotionally driven errors, so those errors may be avoided in the future.

Investor, Know Thyself

Behavioral psychologists have identified several common behaviors that may be exhibited by investors. See if you recognize yourself in any of these examples.

Fear of Regret/Risk Aversion -- The threat of a potential disappointment or a short-term loss is a powerful force that often inspires second-guessing of portfolio strategies. Common responses are to avoid investing altogether, to hold on to a losing stock for far too long in the hopes that it will bounce back one day, or to sell winners too soon -- before they may have reached their full potential.

Overconfidence -- Some investors tend to overestimate their knowledge and skills. For instance, they may overload their portfolio with stocks of a certain sector or geographic region they know well, because they are confident of their ability to understand and track these investments. As a result, they may tend to trade more actively than is in their best interest.

In addition, overconfidence may lead to irrational expectations and, ultimately, to a financial shortfall. For example, the Employee Benefit Research Institute's 2016 Retirement Confidence Survey revealed that a majority (63%) of workers are "very" or "somewhat" confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement, even though fewer than half have actually tried to calculate how much money they would need.1 In other words, many people may have a false sense of security based on incomplete knowledge of their situation.

Anchoring -- This behavior involves reading too much into recent events, despite the fact that those events may not reflect long-term realities or statistical probabilities. For example, investors who believe that a market surge (or downturn) will continue indefinitely may be anchoring their long-term expectations to a short-term perception. Anchoring causes investors to hold on to their investments even after an extended period of poor performance. As we all know, things change. Mental anchoring prevents us from adjusting to those changes.

Today's investor needs a plan of action to help maintain a disciplined strategy and resist making common mistakes. Work with your financial advisor to construct a fully integrated financial plan that reflects your needs and risk tolerance. Such a plan will help you avoid potential pitfalls and stay focused on the long term.
 

Source:

1.  Employee Benefit Research Institute's 2016 Retirement Confidence Survey, March 2016.


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© 2016 DST Systems, Inc. Reproduction in whole or in part prohibited, except by permission. All rights reserved. Not responsible for any errors or omissions.


Robert J. Pyle, CFP®, CFA is president of Diversified Asset Management, Inc. (DAMI). DAMI is licensed as an investment adviser with the State of Colorado Division of Securities, and its investment advisory representatives are licensed by the State of Colorado. DAMI will only transact business in other states to the extent DAMI has made the requisite notice filings or obtained the necessary licensing in such state. No follow up or individualized responses to persons in other jurisdictions that involve either rendering or attempting to render personalized investment advice for compensation will be made absent compliance with applicable legal requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. It does not constitute investment or tax advice. To contact Robert, call 303-440-2906 or e-mail info@diversifiedassetmanagement.com.
 


The views, opinion, information and content provided here are solely those of the respective authors, and may not represent the views or opinions of Diversified Asset Management, Inc.  The selection of any posts or articles should not be regarded as an explicit or implicit endorsement or recommendation of any such posts or articles, or services provided or referenced and statements made by the authors of such posts or articles.  Diversified Asset Management, Inc. cannot guarantee the accuracy or currency of any such third party information or content, and does not undertake to verify or update such information or content. Any such information or other content should not be construed as investment, legal, accounting or tax advice.